The late-added Casula pre-poll batch has pushed Labor further ahead, lifted the counted turnout to almost 70%, and slightly shifted the election-night read without changing the broader shape of the result.
When Local Pulse first reported on the South Ward by-election results, one of the biggest missing pieces was Casula pre-poll. That batch has now been posted, and it has strengthened Labor’s position rather than narrowed the race. The NSW Electoral Commission’s updated first preference report now shows Zeli Munjiza on 21,080 votes (38.31%), ahead of Azam Dabbagh on 12,020 votes (21.84%). That leaves Labor 9,060 votes in front on first preferences.
Casula pre-poll was not just another routine addition to the tally. It brought in 10,037 ballot papers, including 9,335 formal votes. Within that batch alone, Munjiza polled 4,059 votes, while Dabbagh polled 1,862. In other words, Casula did not simply confirm the existing result. It widened it.
That also clears up a large part of the turnout question that was hanging over the election-night picture. The updated tally now shows 59,116 total ballot papers counted from 84,632 electors, which puts the counted turnout at about 69.8%. That is a much fuller picture than the Saturday-night snapshot, which looked unusually soft partly because Casula pre-poll was still missing from the published table.
There is one important qualification here. Liverpool’s 2024 ordinary election was run by a commercial election service provider, not the NSW Electoral Commission, and the detail of the results available from that election is somewhat limited. So the cleanest ward-level turnout benchmark is the results of the 2021 ordinary election, which are still readily available on NSWEC’s website.
In that 2021 election, NSWEC recorded 75,730 electors and 63,590 total ballot papers, giving a 84.37% turnout in South Ward. So while Casula pre-poll numbers have made this by-election look healthier than it did on election night, it still appears to have been a quieter and lower-visibility poll than a normal full council election.
The Casula pre-poll update also slightly changes one part of the earlier analysis. On election night, Labor looked roughly back at its earlier South Ward level. With Casula now included, Labor is a little above it. In 2021, Labor’s South Ward group total was 21,696 votes, or 37.23%. Munjiza is now on 38.31%. That is not a dramatic poltical realignment, but it is a clearer lift than the first overnight numbers suggested.
What has not changed is the broader shape of the contest. Labor candidate Zeli Munkiza has now claimed victory, and the addition of Casula pre-poll has only strengthened that position. The non-major field remains sizeable but split, with Deb Durung on 7.70%, Alanna Humphries on 7.54%, Michael Byrne on 5.23%, and Jamil Azeem on 5.18%. There is clearly support outside of the two major parties, but it remains spread around rather than gathering behind one clear alternative.
There is still a formal process to run before the result is complete. NSWEC says the initial count is indicative only: postal votes scrutiny and counting cannot be completed until the last postal votes are received by 6pm on Friday, 1 May 2026, with the check count running until Monday, 4 May 2026. Declaration vote scrutiny continues through the week after polling day before preferences are distributed.
So the follow-up read is fairly simple. Casula pre-poll has made Labor’s lead look stronger, pushed the counted turnout closer to where many expected it would finish, and nudged Labor a little above its 2021 benchmark. But it has not overturned the broader conclusion from election night. If anything, it has made the result look more settled.
Local Pulse will keep following the numbers as the remained votes are processed and preferences begin to flow, with further analysis to come as the final margin and broader voting patterns become clearer.
Sources: NSW Electoral Commission; Australian Election Company.
